With the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader on Jan. 6, the table is set for a chaotic first quarter of 2025.
Trudeau prorogued parliament until March 24 to allow time for the Liberal Party to choose a successor in an extremely shortened leadership contest, and once parliament does return it will likely be followed with an extremely shortened Canadian election campaign season to see who will govern the country for the foreseeable future.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has a distinct advantage with a pronounced lead in most national polls for preferred Prime Minister, and the Conservative Party will have to ensure it does nothing to get in his way by running a shrewd and unifying campaign with policies that appeal to a broad swath of the general public.
The Conservatives have to avoid tripping off a vote collapse for the NDP and Green Party in favour of the Liberal Party by running a smart campaign. This will make the difference between a minority government and a majority government, and whether their hands will be tied or not when parliament resumes in the aftermath.
As for the Liberals, they have been busy sowing the seeds of their own self-implosion for months, if not years, now. They will try the old Hail Mary play of bringing a new leader, likely Chrystia Freeland, and ramp up the fear campaign against the Conservatives to try to depict them as being out of touch with Canadians’ social-liberal values and feelings about the environment, and too close to the Trump administration to defend Canadian interests.
As for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in an age of celebrity and social media savvy he was perhaps the Canadian leader who understood this best, and leveraged it effectively throughout his political career. But on a social intelligence, policy and achievement front, let’s just say he was never going to be the second coming of his late father.
