Early in 2024 there was a sense of panic as Alberta Environment and Parks Minister Rebecca Schultz sent out a letter to all municipalities telling them to brace for water shortages due to impending drought, and to prepare emergency water management plans. River levels in southern Alberta were at extreme lows, and the Province was actively negotiating with irrigation districts and other major water users to cut back.
Ralph Wright, manager of the Province of Alberta’s Climate Information Service, said there were reasons to be concerned.
“Well, we went through last winter with below normal snow packs and we had some melt episodes, and we even saw near bare ground at times up in the Peace Country last winter, which was unusual,” he recalled. “And then as we headed into Red Deer and south, things started to turn around late last winter. But all in all, we were still quite dry going into the spring.”
Wright said those fears only aggravated as April also came in extremely cold and dry; although some local moisture situations began to improve. However, according to Wright, it was the month of May which was truly a game changer.
“We saw some areas they see in May that wet once in 12 to 25 years,” Wright explained. “Things did turn around. Everybody breathed a very, very big sigh of relief.“
That May moisture carried things through, and was a big offset, when hot, dry temperatures returned in late June and early July, said Wright.
“Then July came around and things dried right up and it got hot for a very, very long period of time, and there was an awful lot of worry,” he confirmed. “I think some of the crops suffered heat damage, no question about that. But the May rains really helped.
“Just south of Olds, all the way up the QE2 to the driest areas were in and around Red Deer, we had (in July) some one in 25 to 50-year lows for that period. That dry extended well up into the Edmonton area and points north of the Town of Athabasca.”
In August the moisture situation improved, said Wright, and while September and October were on the drier side again, he feels Alberta, and the Calgary region as a whole, has settled into a relatively normal precipitation pattern since November.
If it holds through the winter months, Wright said Alberta might get off to a decent start in spring as far as moisture is concerned.
“We're in a nice pattern now, right? If you look at that 90 day map, I think that really said the stage for the pattern we're in, and so moisture did rebound significantly over quite a few areas in the province this fall.
“What we really need to see,” he added, “is just a continuation of the pattern that most of the province is experiencing now, and we need to see that pattern move to points west of Hwy. 2, as well all the way, you know, between Athabasca in the north and Lethbridge in the south. We need to see the foothills in those areas towards Red Deer and Edmonton continue to have good moisture throughout the winter.”
When asked to predict what might lie ahead in terms of snow and moisture this winter, Wright said he isn’t a weatherman or a prophet– he can only go by what the data collection says.
“If you see a forecast that says, we expect the Western Canadian prairies to be drier than normal this growing season,” he explained, “I look at those very skeptically. Maybe if there were a big bucket and we collected everything that dripped out of the bottom at the end of the day, sure. But there's going to be some areas that are doing okay, and there will be some areas that are hit worse than others. So those big blanket forecasts are just rarely correct everywhere.”
However a “normal” pattern would be nice for a change, said Wright, but he acknowledged it would take a lot more than that to replenish Alberta’s depleted irrigation reservoirs and lakes coming into 2025.
“That's a longer term game, right? That's a little harder to turn around quickly, but if we get some decent snowfall this winter and proper melt that doesn’t sort of dribble and drabble away over winter (and) we get a nice healthy snow pack, that'll bring the lakes and rivers up really well.”
